9.) Antoine Saout

I didn’t see any play from Saout that I was particularly inspired by, aside from one great short stack all in bluff. He seems like an ABC kind of guy, and one of the short stacks, so I pick him to drop first.

8.) James Akenhead

Akenhead played down from the top 18 perfectly, bouncing back from somewhere between 5 and 10 BB at the start of the final two tables to having a third of the average stack in the top 9. Despite his short stack, I like him over Saout: he made a disciplined fold of A-J suited against two bets in front of him preflop, among other questionably tight plays that will be just enough to let him hang on one more spot.

7.) Jeff Schulman

Aside from Moon, I’d call Schulman the worst player at the table. He’s also ABC, but ABC from 5 years ago: he hasn’t adapted to the hyper-aggressive turn that poker has taken. I see Schulman getting sucked in by the aggressiveness of Begleiter and Cada and taking a stand at the wrong time.

6.) Kevin Schaffel

Schaffel’s self-proclaimed M.O. is to be “patient and calm.” I can only see his patience (read “tightness”) increase next week. He won’t exactly get blinded off, but I don’t think he’ll get involved as early as he should with half average stack. I see him getting it in when he’s down to 6 or 8 million, and if he wins it, he’ll go deeper, but he may be desperate enough at that point to get it in poorly.

5.) Steve Begleiter

I had some trouble with these middle picks: I like Begleiter’s aggressiveness a lot, but he caught a lot of cards in July. I’m not sure, then, if he’ll play as well when the cards dry up. 5^th place is assuming he gets too aggressive, and someone like Ivey or Cada catches him at the right time.

4.) Darvin Moon

I challenge any poker player to find one good aspect of Moon’s game, because I certainly couldn’t. He holds almost a third of the chips in play because he flopped a higher flush than Billy Kopp, who must have made Moon for top pair with the nut flush draw, because he pushed it in. Terrible blow to Kopp, but Moon isn’t going to know what to do with that stack. I also see the 4 month layover being the most detrimental to the chip leader: the most pressure is on you to make poker happen, I think. This is a big reason Phillips lost so much so early last year, overplaying that A-K. Assuming he isn’t holding the deck like he was in July, I can’t see Moon making the top 3.

3.) Phil Ivey

I made a bet with CR and the Goose on Ivey to win before the pick’em prop, and now feel the need to hedge it. You won’t find too much argument against Ivey being the best player at that table. He has about half chip average, and more patience than the rest of the table combined. He picked the right moments to pick up blinds as he struggled in the top 18, and will do the same until he doubles up in the top 9, which I see taking him to around third place.

2.) Joe Cada

I was real impressed by Cada’s play. There were a couple times, especially against Ivey, where he had some sick read and was able to check raise Ivey off a bluff. Supposedly, he was day one chip leader and hadn’t gotten all in since then. Cada will make it to the top 3, mark my words.

1.)    Eric Buchman

I pick Buchman to win. He’s a solid player with an average and a half stack. With two bets in front of him, Buchman was able to dump 10-10 preflop, when the two bets were 9-9 and K-K. Mix his skill with his chips, if he can take one big pot off Moon or Begleiter early, I see him going all the way.

So those are my picks this year. The wild card, as it always is I guess, is the luck factor.  Begleiter, especially, knows how to play his cards well enough when he gets them, but guys like Buchman, Cada, and Ivey can do well without them as well. That being said, I have more at stake in my prop with CR and the Goose than I do in the pick’em prop, so I would absolute prefer to see Ivey take it down. Not only for the win, but to see such an established pro do the unthinkable: conquer a huge field of mostly amateurs and satellite winners to take down the biggest title in poker.

I hear my sports fan friends shriek around this time of the year that ESPN throw two hours away per week on the televised World Series of Poker. “Poker is not a sport, and has no place on ESPN.” Those are two different arguments, but I’m going to get into both of them.

I’ll take the easy one first. Poker absolutely has a place on ESPN. Granted, most of ESPN’s schedule is devoted to Sportscenter, but ESPN2 is where the World Series is aired over and over. Other great events on ESPN2 include the World Trick Shot Championship in Billiards and Nathan’s Annual Hot Dog Eating Contest. I guess you can argue either of those are sports as well, but as I’m not as experienced with them, at least not yet , they won’t be the focus of this post. Basically, in the same sense that MTV rarely shows music videos anymore, networks will show what they choose to show. If there is a market for it, it belongs on the channel. That simple. Additionally, there are sports events on many channels, and no more than 4 or 5 stations that show poker, so give us a break.

So is poker a sport? Sport is defined by Webster’s as “a source of diversion” and “physical activity engaged in for pleasure” and “sexual play.” I rate those at 100%, 25%, and 2%(given the right circumstances), respectively, for relevence to poker.

Random House defines sport as “an athletic activity requiring skill or physical prowess and often of a competitive nature” and also “diversion; recreation; pleasant pastime.”

One more, American Heritage: “Physical activity that is governed by a set of rules or customs and often engaged in competitively,” and “An active pastime; recreation.”

The biggest argument I hear from sports fans is that poker is not physical enough. You won’t find anyone trying to tell you that poker is as physically intense as football, but it may just be as physically intense as golf. Before you dismiss the physical element of tournament poker, you must give it a shot. Even a small tournament, only lasting 4 or 5 hours, will find many players tired, fatigued, and sick of the game. It takes a truly disturbed mind to stay so focused on the game after so long.

Now take a tournament like the WSOP main event. 6 days straight, playing 12 hours a day with few breaks, and every decision you make is potentially life changing, with multimillion dollar top prizes. I’ve never had the pleasure, but I know how taxing even online tournies can be, when I’m in the comfort of my own home. So that’s my argument, and from what I’ve seen the standard argument, for the physical element of the game.

I see it as incomplete, though. If your definition of sport is a physical challenge like football or basketball, you will never view poker as a sport. But if you allow things like golf, hunting, and/or NASCAR to be called sports, I’m not sure how you can refuse poker. I would posit that where golf is extremely social, moderately competitive, and mildly physical, as is poker. Poker, especially in the form of large buy-in tournaments, is one of the most mentally taxing experiences in the world in terms of game.

Let’s not forget the other definition. “Source of diversion,” “recreation,” and “pleasant pastime” all easily fit poker. So I think when you get down to it, it’s just a matter of semantics. The definition of “sport” can vary, but I think, at it’s core, poker holds to the ideas behind a sport: competition, recreation, socialization, and even a little bit of physical demand.

Notice I did say won-lost and not lost-won back. I’m not bust, but I’m short, and as a result a little tilted. Still working on the emotional tie in with the losses… It looks to be biggest leak in my game right now.

But being short is a good time to focus on other elements of poker rather than the basic session. I just entered into a competition with fellow poker player and good friend ChiGoose. Now the Goose started a personal challenge about a month ago in the spirit of Chris Ferguson to freeroll his way to $100 in a year. Given his law school schedule, this challenge will be a close one. He’s doing his best these days to play as many freerolls as possible, regardless of game, in hopes of a small cash. That’s all one really can do starting at that level. He’s closely monitoring his rate of success in the freerolls, and is getting better every session.

I wanted to get in on this action because it sounded fun. The closest I had ever gotten was turning $0.13 into $130 on Pokerstars a couple of years ago. I didn’t want to mirror what he was doing exactly, as I have a lot more time on my hands than he does with a lot more poker experience, so I feel I would have an unfair advantage in that sense. I settled on a play money challenge. Starting with the Full Tilt reload of 1,000, my goal is to reach 5,000,000 before the Goose reaches his $100.

Some might say (hell even I might say on a different day) that play money poker doesn’t even count as poker. People just like to throw chips around, see what happens, and if they lose, they just reload. I wouldn’t disagree with the argument that people play stupid, but I would say that it still is a game, and games are beatable.

In play money tournaments, hand values go way down, and the average number of people in a pot skyrockets. It also becomes almost exclusively a post-flop game. I’ve been playing 90 man 250 and 2000 sit and gos and 9 man 250 and 2000 sit and gos. My single table S&G needs a lot of work… it’s been awhile since I’ve focused on it, and I’m getting crushed, even at the 250 play chip level. That’s how you know you’re bad. But I’ve developed a solid strategy for the 90 man play chip tournaments.

You can almost sit out to the money from the get-go. I thought this awhile back when I was on Pokerstars for play money: It’s a good investment to enter in the max number of multi-table sit and gos allowed, and just walk away from the computer. You will almost definitely turn profit. So far, what I’ve seen of the 250 buy in 90 man, you can sit out to top 18, easy, but only top 9 pay. Plus, just getting in the money is not really profitable… it pays something like 528 for your 250… You really need top 3 finish to take home four figures.

So the idea is to play rock solid tight, at least until you hit top 30 (which I assure you will be no later than level 3). After that, you don’t raise preflop unless you have aces or kings. If you do have aces or kings, I like an all in from late position, because the blinds always seem to feel some sort of requirement to call the bet when everyone else has folded. From early or middle position, you just need to accept that 5 people are taking the flop for whatever raise you put in. So with a stack of say 1200 at 25/50, I’ll raise to about 400, and get 4 callers. On the flop, hopefully I’m the first to act, and basically regardless of flop texture, I ship it in. Most of the time, it will fold around, or you’ll get a call from some middle to bottom pair.

But if it’s not aces or kings, it’s a limping game. As I said before, any decent raise sees a lot of calls, so why build a pot, even as a small favorite? Better to lock in where you are before you commit any more of your chips. This turns poker from a game of aggression to a game of patience. But with 15 minute levels, and losing half the field by the end of the first level, you don’t need a whole lot of patience to go deep.

I don’t know that these concepts are transferable to any cash tournament I can think of, but it reminds me of the loose-passive games I’ve played at Phil’s and Niagara. With 5 people taking a flop, consistently, it’s really tough to wait it out. All you want to do is raise and get them to fold, because even with A-9 on a K-9-3 board, you know you are probably a favorite: they see every flop! Plus it’s always tough, for me anyways, to put the loose-passive on a hand. But remember, for every flop you limp into with these players, you only need to take it down 1 in 5 times to profit. So exert caution when entering pots with loose-passives. Try to keep the pot smaller until you are able to get a better read.

When the challenge is over, I expect to have a few million arbitrons in my play money account. Looks like Full Tilt has a play money buy in tournament with real money prizes for a half a million arbitrons. So I guess I’ll have a new challenge when this one is over.

Career implied odds aren’t as frequently seen. These apply to players you spar with frequently, usually in a regular home game. Your poker image travels with you from session to session if you play multiple sessions with any particular player or set of players. You can, like session implied odds, set yourself up for a big score by manipulating what these players think of you.

Here’s an example: I’ve been playing Phil’s game more and more lately. When I first started, I played extremely tight, because I was outside my comfort zone in terms of stakes. As a result, usually if I was tabling a hand, it was very big. With the players at Phil’s game, who vary but there is certainly a solid core including Phil himself, I’ve built up a very tight image. The last couple of sessions, I’ve been abusing that.

I was UTG with a very loose aggressive player to my right. I pick up Ah-7h. My read is if I pop it, everyone will fold around expecting the BB to re-raise. Since he was playing right around $100, I also thought this, but I figured a suited ace was ahead of a lot of hands he would do it with. It does fold around, and the BB calls. the flop comes A-K-4, no hearts. He checks, I bet $40, and he raises the rest. I call, and he doesn’t flip his hand, but declares that he knows I’m ahead, but he has a straight draw.

Phil asks me, “Do you have pocket aces?” I shake my head, and table my hand. It holds through the turn and river, and Phil declares that he folded pocket kings. At first, that seemed so obscene, but I remembered the session before, when I tabled aces twice in one session. Each time, it saw a $25 bump UTG. If I were him, I probably would have tested the waters, and maybe raised to $50 or $60. But like I said, I have a very tight image.

Later that night, I get 8d-6d. This time I’m UTG after a straddle, and I flat call. Phil raises to $40 from the BB, and the loose-aggressive calls. I also call. Flop falls 4-5-5, with one diamond. I love this flop. I can easily give Phil two face cards, and I know the loose-aggressive will fold to a bet if he missed, based on his recent play. He checks, and I fire out $60. Phil calls, the loose-aggressive folds.

The turn comes a blank, and Phil checks. This is where I start to remember when he folded pocket kings to me. I know if I represent a big hand, he’ll fold an overpair, and maybe even a 5 to me. I bet out $100. He plays with his cards for a few seconds and says, “Why do I have a sinking feeling you have pocket fours?” He mucked, and I took down a sizable pot.

Then I did something very stupid. I showed the bluff.

I can’t begin to imagine the career implied odds I lost by turning over that hand. The credit Phil was giving me was outstanding. I could steal pots from him for another month before he starts looking me up. My thought process at the time, while brief, was something in the area of, “This will surprise him, and I’ll enjoy the shock value,” and, “This will garner some respect for my game.” It wasn’t until after that I realized what I had really lost for but a moment of excitement.

I hadn’t really thought before last night of career implied odds, but as long as poker players have memory from session to session, they’ll pick up, for the most part, where they left off. The trick is to keep that in mind when you decide to alter that. Don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of times where showing a bluff will be a great benefit. But in this situation, I think I shot myself in the foot, and lost some long term value.

Anyways, last night I was playing the big game at Phil’s place. After my big Turning Stone win, I hadn’t played at all. Since I’m off this week, I was determined to play a nice long session. It’s a 1-2-5 game, $500 max. I always buy in for $200. Since I’m still way up from TS, I walked in with 2 bullets: $200, plus a $200 rebuy.

In the first hour, I worked that $200 up to about $450 on a very exciting hand. I had on a  board… I bet appropriately every step of the way. He pushed me in on the turn, and I gave him a flush, but I can not throw away this hand, dog or not. I was still about 35% to the river. Sure enough, I got one more club, to double up to a little over $400.

I got aces 4 more times last night… All in about 4 hours. The next two times I took down a modest pot on the flop. The 4th time, though, pocket sevens caught up when they set the flop. Two more times, the same guy, an ultra-tight player, outflopped me with a smaller pocket pair. After those, I was down to about $50.

I get that $50 in with pocket jacks, and 9-8 offsuit calls me. I feel great when I set the flop, J-5-2 but he runner runners a straight on me with 10-7. Time for a break.

I head to the bathroom, and start thinking about that second bullet. I thought real hard about how I felt, how the game felt, all that. As I said, I get real emotional about losses like this. But I decided I was playing well. With the exception of getting involved with the ultra-tight guy too much, I had a good feeling about where everyone at the table was at. I decided to continue playing, and just focus very hard on every bet.

I chip down to about $125, as I seriously regret my decision. The ultra-tight player put me in on a K-Q-J flop, when I have K-J. At that point I was just thinking, how did I let this happen? I called it… A poor call, and I said so, but I felt comfort when everyone at the table told me “You have to at that point.” True, it was a big pot before the all-in bet. Sure he enough he flips A-10, and I spike a jack on the river… Putting my stack up to $350.

That’s an important thing about the game at Phil’s place. Everyone that plays there knows their shit, but not everyone plays very well. So, I learn a lot… And I mean a lot… Just watching them play, and I’m still able to eke out profit. Also, conversation tends to stay focused on the game… These people love poker as much as I do, and that’s rare to find. Aside from the first summer I played poker with Chasse, they have to be the best poker lessons I’ve ever had.

Anyways, I have $350, and it’s about 1:30am. Twice when the button came around (which is fairly quickly, at a 6 handed table) I thought about just heading out, cutting my loss. As I said, I get very emotional, and at this point, the ups and downs have taken a toll, and I’m getting worn out.

Then this hand happens:

Game:  6-handed NL Texas Hold’em

Location: Phil’s Place

Stakes: $1/$2/$5, $500 max

My stack: $350

Mental State: Worn down, long night, stuck a little, but playing cautiously

Hand:

Position: UTG

Opp 1 Mississippi Straddles to $10 from the button. [Mississippi Straddle is when the button raises to double the blind, and the SB is first to act. Button gets option when action gets back to him.]

Now, Opp 1 is definitely the loosest at the table, and I’ve seen him call down with real weak draws. At this point in the night, the game is dying down, and he’s trying to stir up action.

SB folds.

BB folds.

DrexxMac raises to $40. My typical play against Opp 1 is let him call a bet preflop, peel a flop, then I bet him out there, or on the turn. It’s usually pretty clear when he hit a flop hard.

Opp 2 goes all-in for $87. Opp 2 is not too stuck for the night, but is acting way stuck, one of those “trying to get even” guys. As a result, and again, how much the game is winding down, I can give him a wide range.

Opp 1 calls. Again, no surprise, he’s an action guy. I wasn’t planning on playing another big pot tonight, but I was getting like 4.5 to 1 on another $47 call, with one player all in. Opp 1 has another $175 or so left, so I figure there’s enough implied to peel a flop… On an A-K-K I can get away, but I’ll get some action on a 10-9-8 or a 10-9-7 or something.

DrexxMac calls.

Pot: $261

Flop:

I’m first to act, and I see Opp 1 motion his chips toward the pot. Then he realizes I’m first to act. I ask him for a count, he has $179 left. I tank for a minute or two… Not a bad flop for my hand, and I can see Opp 1 putting it in with A-K or something here… It’s just how he plays.

DrexxMac pushes all-in.

Opp 1 calls.

Pot: $622

“What do you have, aces again?” Opp 2 asks me.

“No.” I say.

Opp 1 flips , and my heart goes crazy.

“What do you have?” someone asked Opp 2.

“The worst hand in poker.” He never shows, but he says he had A-J.

Board:

It took me a second to figure out if I had won… It didn’t help that Opp 2 wouldn’t flip or muck his hand. Anyways, eventually, the chips moved my way for the biggest pot I’ve won in awhile.

The game broke, then. We were 6 handed, and I busted 2 players in that hand. Which was fine by me… I would have played another round of the button, and folded them all to get out with that money.

Overall, it was a lot of fun, and very exciting, but I still wasn’t feeling great at the end of the night… I was still pretty worn from the swings. The night taught me a lot of things, but the most important is the toll that swings can take if you tie a lot of emotion to it. So how do you get away from it? I’m still working on that, but I think a bigger bankroll will help. I’d love to hear any input you may have on it.

Location: Full Tilt

Stakes: Blinds 150/300 with a 75 ante. 18 places pay, 31 remain.

Stack: 9,175

Mental State: Decent. It’s relax after work poker, but I’m not tilting off.

Hand:

Position: UTG +1

It’s a small tournament, I’m watching a movie, I’m not 100% focused. I get the 5d-6d, so I limp.

DrexxMac limps

Opp limps, UTG +2.

Folds to the blinds.

SB calls.

BB checks.

Pot: 1,400

Flop:

SB checks.

BB checks.

This is a great example of a “I wonder where I’m at?” flop. I like betting here, because a lot of the time, you’ll get outright folds. Sometimes you get a call from a high spade or an A-6, but then you know where you are at.

DrexxMac bets 900.

Opp calls.

Both blinds fold.

Pot: 3,200.

Turn:

So, I hit my hand, but I’m worried about spades. I gotta make him for a high spade, or a hand like A-6, no spade. It could be a hand like 6-4, not sure where he’s at, but I rule out 7-5, because I feel like 7-5 raises the flop for information. Any flush, too, is suspect, aside from the nuts… Something like a 9 or 10 high flush would raise the flop too, to bet me out if I have an As-5, or 6-6.

So I can’t give him more than top pair, likely just a draw.

So what to bet? Because it’s a $2 tournament, I figure I need to bet high to get a naked paint spade to fold.

DrexxMac goes all in for 7,950.

Opp calls

Opp shows down:

Well there you have it. I guess I have to give it to him for flatting the flop. No way I could give him the flush. How else could I have played it, the way the cards fell? If I bet the pot on the turn, pricing him out, he flats again, and the river bricks, now what? I think it’s the same bet, all in, but now I gave the As-X a chance to draw out.

I don’t know. Maybe it’s futile trying to analyze a $2 tournament anyways. It’s what I have though, so what can you do?

In other poker news, this past Saturday I took down a $125 buy in tournament. It was called a “Second Chance” tournament, there was a series going on at Turning Stone, and the big $500 tournament from 11am was still going on. Problem with a tournament that starts at 7pm is that they want it to end relatively early.

Sure enough, we ended before the big tournament… When we got down to the final 9, I had the chip lead, but everyone decided to chop… Myself included. I had been pushing for the chop since we hit the money. I wasn’t going to stop just because I was ahead. The way TS tournies go, blinds get insane, and it’s just like drawing cards for hundreds of dollars. Screw that.

So we did an even chop. What I really wanted to do was chop most of it and play out for a lesser amount of money, just because I think it would’ve been so much fun. No matter, though. My biggest tournament win to date. My financial backer who had bought half of me was very pleased.

So after that win, I’m sitting pretty well, again. I’m about half way to being able to Ferguson at the casinos… If I get to that point, I sincerely believe I can begin building a higher and higher roll. Just need a cool head.

I’ll let you know when I get there.

Game: 210 FPP 20 man Satellite to the Sunday Quarter Million, 6 places pay a seat

Location: Pokerstars

Stakes: 200/400 with 25 ante

Stack: 1750, 7th of 7 in chips, next small stack has 2000, then 2400

Mental State: Focused, tight on the bubble

Hand:

Position: Small Blind

The table has been pretty loose aggressive… I’ve been getting by with the short stack for about 3 eliminations… The big stack, in particular, has been playing way too many hands for this stage in this tournament. In a normal tournament, that’s the right way to play, but in this one, sixth place pays the same as first. He was sitting around 12k at one point, which is his cue to sit out, and wait to get his tournament ticket. Instead, he doubled up the guy that would eventually bust me, putting him at 8k, with the big stack still at 9k. 5000 is the magic number: The average stack with 6 players remaining. I’m clearly well below.

Opp in the Hijack (Two behind the button) limps.

Folds to Drexx. Drexx limps. This is the play I’m questioning. A big stack limped to me, and I have 3 bets behind. I was really debating between push and fold, and made the classic mistake of meeting halfway, and performing the worst action.

BB checks.

Pot: 1,375 (Drexx has 1,325 left)

Flop:

Drexx goes all in. I don’t think there was a question when the flop hit.

BB folds.

Opp calls.

Opp shows:

Turn gives me hope with the , but the river bricks on me, and I’m the bubble boy. So was it a cooler? I think it was on the turn, there’s no way I’m not pushing there, but I’m questioning my preflop call. I did have 4 more hands before I was a blind again, but then I would be commited to my BB hand. Assuming I don’t get a hand in those 4, I think the table may tighten, at least SHOULD tighten, if I’m only playing 3 and a half bets. They’ll know when the BB gets to me, I’m in.

So what about the push? I think if the Opp likes a hand for the limp, he’ll like it for 3 more bets to finish the tournament. Plus, even if he lost, he had 7k behind, and would still be second in chips.

What about the limp? Did I just get unlucky on the flop? Maybe calling 200 to see a flop to double my stack isn’t such a bad idea. I’ll still have the same 4 hands to find one I like before the BB commits me… that doesn’t change.

I’m really not sure about this one, I’d love to hear any input.

Anyways, I’m proud to say, despite a little tilt, I played another, and got my ticket. Time to turn 210 FPP into 20 large, right?

That’s not to say I can’t play the other games. Stud, Stud Hi/Lo, PLO, Omaha 8 or better, Razz, NL 2-7 single draw, Limit 2-7 Triple Draw, None of these are my best game, but I could give most players a run for their money in most of them. Some players, I’d even say a lot of players, don’t transition well from NLH to other games… They think of NLH odds very literally, and carry them over incorrectly. Even NLH to Limit Hold’em, they aren’t as similar as the amateur would believe.

So when players, nonadapting players, try this transition, it always ends up profitable for the player skilled in the game. Not only this, but the other games will teach you a thing or two that can help you in your Hold’em game.

This is why it’s a good idea to dabble in HORSE, or one of my favorites, 8-Game. 8-Game is a mixture of Limit 2-7 Triple Draw, Limit Hold’em, Limit Omaha Hi/Lo, Razz, Seven Card Stud, Seven Card Stud Hi/Lo, No Limit Hold’em, and Pot Limit Omaha. These games rotate every 8 hands in a cash game, or based on a time interval in a tournament. What I like about 8-Game is that, very rarely, is a player good at all the games. Everyone has a game or two or three that they are good at, and they just kind of get through the other games. If you can be decent at all the games, and, most importantly, identify which games which players can play, you can isolate players in their off game to make some money.

Chasse was playing 8-Game on Full Tilt the other day, except the FT server doesn’t have 2-7, so it’s only 7-Game. He sat $2/$4 with his whole bankroll… a terrible idea. He got involved in this hand in Omaha Hi/Lo:

Game: Six handed 7-Game Mixed Game Cash Table: Currently Limit Omaha Hi/Lo

Location: Full Tilt

Stakes: $2/$4

Hand:

Position: Small Blind

Folds around to the Cutoff.

Cutoff raises to $4

Chasse calls. Standard call, I think. Cutoff raise could always have a wide range.

BB folds

Pot: $10

Flop:

Chasse bets $2. Chasse likes his bet here, because he likes to know where he stands, and he bets out hands like A-Q-3-2 or J-J-3-2.

Opp calls. Chasse makes him for a hand, at best, A-K-3-2, so he’s happy with his hand.

Pot: $14

Turn:

Chasse bets $4

Opp raises to $8

Chasse raises to $12

Opp caps at $16. At this point, Chasse makes the Opp for 3-3-2-A, making it a very profitable turn. Assuming no 3 falls on the river, he’s freerolling. No low card above 2, and he scoops. Also, it puts the 4th suit on the board, killing any chance of a flush.

Pot: $42

River:

Chasse gins the river. That 2 kills any low draw the Opp might have had, and gives Chasse second nut low with A-2-3-5-8.

Chasse bets $4

Opp raises to $8

Chasse raises to $12

Opp caps at $16. Chasse is confused. He can’t give the guy any hand that beats him. All he can imagine is that the Opp has that 3-3-2-A, and that Chasse was not on a low draw.

Chasse calls

Total Pot: $74

Opp shows: 

Chasse scoops $74 pot.

This hand is all kinds of nonsense, and if anyone can make better sense of it than I’m about to, I’d love to hear it. A-A-Q-9 is a pretty big starting hand, and definitely worth the preflop raise. The blinds are going to make you for stealing, so they will look you up a lot of the time. On a K-10-8 flop, your hand loses a lot of value. Giving the SB almost any 4 cards, and betting into you, it’s easy to give him 2 pair or even a Q-J-9-X for a 17 card wrap-around, or obviously a set. Any of those are worth a bet from the SB and a fold from you.

Lets speculate and say the SB reads you to have missed that flop and is betting into you. It’s a good spot to raise and find out if that’s the case. If the SB has an A-2-3-4 double suited, he’ll fly out of this hand to that raise.

So why call the flop bet? All I can tell is he thought he was very strong, and was floating till the bet doubled. Even if you are ahead, this is a very dangerous play in Omaha. Omaha is a game of the nuts and draws. Calling the flop as a float with such a marginal hand is a bad play… If you think you are ahead, you need to represent as much, and push the action.

The turn falls a 3, which if you think you are good with aces, you aren’t doing any worse now. SB bets, and you raise, springing your marvelous aces trap. Problem now is if the SB is on a naked low draw, he can call $4 into $22 real easily. If he puts in a third bet, as he does, time to close down shop… There is nothing you are ahead of, or drawing to beat… unless you spike your miracle jack for the nut straight.

So you cap, and likewise on the river. The Opp here played the hand like Hold’em, and still didn’t play it well. He overvalued his pocket aces. I asked Chasse, and apparently, the guy had been playing Razz and Stud real well. My guess, then, is that he’s a Stud player with some NL hold’em knowledge, or vice versa. None of this adds up to an Omaha 8OB player.

So I guess the moral here is that there is a lot of benefit in learning the other games. And, once you have learned them, play the mixed games, and keep an eye out for who plays what well, and focus your energy on players’ weak games. On that note, though, know your own soft points, and be careful when you are in those games. PLO is one of my downfalls, so I make sure to tighten up on the PLO round of 8-game. Overall, though, there is a lot to be won in mixed games from players who think they know what they are doing, as in this example.

When I read the headline, and the beginning of the story, it sounded like any other fabrication to get heads to turn: Shulman, if he wins the main event, will throw the bracelet in the trash. The news article was clearly squelching the rumor. But as I read on, the article explained that the misconception was in the reasoning behind the statement. The statement, however, stands.

I couldn’t believe it. Shulman explained that his intention to discard the bracelet is based on the way the WSOP has been run by Harrah’s in recent years. He cited four reasons for his discontentment:

1.) WSOP locked out over 500 people from playing in the main event.

2.) WSOP charged over $3,000,000 in entry fees from the players.

3.) WSOP created an uneven playing field by giving preferential treatment to some.

4.) WSOP generally displays bad attitudes and makes inaccurate decisions.

I went on to read the comments on the article, which, on the whole, are amazingly well thought out, for an internet forum. If you haven’t already, I recommend reading through them. I think Jeff has some good points, but with those comes a certain need for compromise.

1.) WSOP locked out over 500 people from playing in the main event.

I do think that Harrah’s is providing a service to the poker community, and as such, it’s bad business to turn anyone away. I believe that Harrah’s, as a corporate entity, recognizes this, and made an effort to oblige, by considering going ten handed and using alternates. They could not find a solution, however, that does not give advantage to one player or another. Thus, they settled on turning people away. For their own convenience, and in order to stay on schedule, they could not create a 1E day. I’m not sure of the expenses of changing the schedule and creating a 1E, but I’m guessing it must be outside the scope of what the additional players would have brought in.

I’ll agree that there was a lot of time to register for the event, and there are some players who could have benefited from registering earlier. However, Harrah’s assured some players who asked prior to 1D if 1D would fill, and if they should be concerned. Harrah’s reps assured players that they have not come close to filling, and would “probably not” fill on 1D. Harrah’s also ran satellites up until the last minute on 1D, and these players were also turned away. These players had no way of registering early. If Harrah’s is going to run satellites so late, they need to guarantee the seats. I do call that one Harrah’s fault. Overall, on this note, I’ll agree with Jeff that Harrah’s does not cater to the player the way they should.

2.) WSOP charged over $3,000,000 in entry fees from the players for the main event.

I don’t think Jeff was citing this as a problem he has with the WSOP as much as further evidence toward why Harrah’s should be more mindful of players’ needs in the tournament. 10% vig is standard for a tournament, and I don’t see a problem with it.

3.) WSOP created an uneven playing field by giving preferrential treatment to some.

This is absolutely true. WSOP is a company, and as such, needs to look at every decision it makes as to how it affects the company. Hellmuth’s rants, Negreanu’s reads, Laak’s antics, these are all good for business. You need these on ESPN to get the ratings, to get interest. Not only is it good for the company, this one is good for the poker community as well.

Lets look at the Hellmuth rant of 2008 and the questionable follow-up. In the 2008 Main Event, at the end of Day 5, with about 80 players remaining, Cristian Dragomir raises preflop with 10-4, and gets a call from Hellmuth’s A-K. On a 10-9-7 flop, Hellmuth checks to Dragomir’s continuation bet. Hellmuth folds A-K face up, and the table urges Dragomir to show the bluff. Dragomir flips the 10-4, making the crowd cheer. Hellmuth goes on a typical rant at the featured table, calling Dragomir an idiot repeatedly, even after he, Dragomir, asked both Hellmuth and the floor for him to stop. Hellmuth was penalized an orbit of the button, which at the current stakes would cost Phil 10% of his stack in blinds and antes.

That night, Hellmuth contacted tournament director Jack Effel and got the sentencing pushed down to a warning. The next day, Hellmuth was back, first thing in the morning, at the final table. In one of his first hands, he took down a monster pot… a hand he should have been sitting out from.

Is this preferential treatment? Absolutely. The names are going to get preferential treatment from WSOP and ESPN because they create higher ratings. It’s a business approach. In terms of the game, it definitely puts the average player at a disadvantage. Should it be done? Absolutely not. Will it ever NOT be done? I don’t think so. There’s just no avoiding it, but you’ll find this in any major tournament I think, televised or not. The big players are going to be known by tournament directors and floormen. These “officials,” while maybe not as directly as in the Hellmuth-Dragomir case, will tip the scales toward the big players. It’s just business, and it’s unfair, but I don’t think it’s avoidable, given the current state of poker, it’s popularity, and the profits that comes from it.

From the standpoint of one of the other 79 players, I would be real upset about the situation… But as a whole, for the poker world, it’s better that Hellmuth stay in front of that camera he loves so much. It brings more weak players into the poker community and more soft money into the poker economy.

4.) WSOP generally displays bad attitudes and makes inaccurate decisions.

I’ve never played in the WSOP, but from everything I’ve read, this is absolutely true. With 300 tables sitting, the amount of staff needed to deal to, regulate, consolidate, and make rulings on players is very large. The amount of competent staff needed is also large, and I’m willing to bet WSOP does what they can.

With such a hefty buy-in, emotions run high for players. Small mistakes from dealers, floormen, and others are blown out of proportion by players. In terms of bad attitudes, I personally don’t blame them. Poker players can be brutal. I’ve seen players say some terrible terrible things to dealers, when the dealer is just trying to do their job. They make mistakes just like anyone… people just get too emotionally charged over situations, and have to direct it somewhere. Who else but the one holding the deck?

I do think it’s true, though, that as you go up the ladder of WSOP management, people become less and less concerned and interested in the game itself and more interested in the company and the financial gain of the WSOP. I disagree with this, but again find it unavoidable… Anything that is profitable becomes privatized, and the one who owns the rights makes the rules. I put up a goofy video on YouTube and got a cease and desist order based on the background music, unless I agree to have certain advertisements run on the page.

They earned it, man, whether legitimately or not. There is no poker tournament that holds the prestige or the breadth of the WSOP. And for the services they offer, a multi-million dollar first place prize year after year, with a relatively smoothly run series of tournaments, you can’t get more bang for your buck, from what I see.

So, I guess my final opinion is that I agree with Shulman’s opinions and problems with the WSOP, but I’m not sure it’s avoidable. I also don’t think discarding the bracelet would create the statement necessary to bring about change… that bracelet represents the dreams and aspirations of a lot of people in this world, myself included. Stomping on the bracelet would bring ill-will on you, not on the series, from the people you are trying to inform. If you own the largest poker publication in the world, I feel like there are other ways to get your message across.

Though, I will say I like all of his ideas for what to do with the bracelet:

1. Auction off the bracelet and give the money to charity
2. Hold a tournament for all players shut out of the main event and award the winner the bracelet
3. Give the bracelet away in a SpadeClub.com tournament
4. Give the bracelet to Stephen Colbert

6,494 hopefuls set out to win the most prestagious award in the poker world two weeks ago. As of last night/early this morning, that field is cut down to nine. Anyone that keeps a relatively close watch on poker happenings will recognize two names on the list. Anyone that owns a TV and has ESPN will recognize one.

Years after amateurs flooded The Amazon Room in hopes of a Moneymaker like run at a World Series of Poker bracelet, many thought it impossible for a pro to ever win again. The fields are too large, the odds are just too difficult to overcome. Pros have gone deep, of course… Just last year, Mike “The Mouth” Matusow made it to 30th, just ahead of his buddy Phil “Poker Brat” Hellmuth, who busted in 45th. That was out of a field of 6,844. In 2007,  Scotty “Prince of Poker” Ngyuen, who won the title in 1998 came painfully close to a second go at it when he finished in 11th.

This year, Phil “Too Amazing to Have a Nickname” Ivey has made the November Nine. Arguably the best poker player alive, Ivey plays at the highest stakes in the world. While he has a relatively modest tournament record (Only, oh, seven WSOP bracelets), Ivey, and those closest to him, attribute this to a certain boredom that comes with tournament poker.

Who can blame him? The first bracelet he won this year, in $2,500 No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball, won him a mere $96,367. The event took 3 days. His usual cash game sees stakes of $2000/$4000, with a buy in around a quarter million dollars. Why put in the time and the effort in the tournament for such a small payoff?

Ivey, and many other pros, are known to put props on themselves for the World Series. For Ivey’s first bracelet, it was rumored that he was winning around $3,000,000 in side bets for a victory. This brings up an interesting idea that I’ve been tossing around for a few weeks. When you get heads up with Ivey, why not offer to sell him the bracelet in exchange for 1st and 2nd place money? That’s a discussion for another post.

So what will Ivey win, off the felt, for a main event victory? My friends and I have estimated around $25m to $30m.

And why not? This feat is unimaginable. People have said Carlos Mortensen would be the last pro to take down the main event title, with the large numbers that the event brings out. I would bet against Phil to win it in a field of 6,494 any day of the week. But out of a field of 9? He is most certainly a favorite.

He’s not alone at that table, though. Jeff “Happy” Shulman, current editor of CardPlayer magazine, is sitting above the average stack for the next few months. I’m not entirely sure of Shulman’s abilities… Zero WSOP bracelets to speak of, I haven’t seen him play, myself. The big Jeff Shulman story is back in 2000, before the poker boom… That was Chris “Jesus” Ferguson’s year. Shulman had the chip lead going into the final table, and was rolling over the competition. He took down seven out of nine pots before finally being looked up by Ferguson. After Shulman raised, yet again, Ferguson pushed in with 6-6, and was in bad shape against Shulman’s 7-7. A 6 on the flop put Shulman way behind, and gave the chip lead to Ferguson. Not long after, Shulman got the rest of his stack in with kings, and was looked up by Ferguson’s aces.

Both pros have done outstanding to make it this far. I did a little math on the subject. Of a field of 6,494, lets say there are 100 players that we would be able to identify. 87% of the time, the final table will not have any of our 100. 12.25% of the time, you’ll see one name you remember. Only three quarters of a percent, 0.75% of the time, will there be two players at the final table that you know. Albeit, these calculations assume all players equal, and personally, I’d sooner put my money on Phil Ivey than Ray Romano.

Either way, good luck to Ivey and Shulman. The chip leader, Darvin Moon, currently holds a third of the chips in play. While I wouldn’t count Ivey out by any stretch with 5%, it will take some work for him to get back on top. No doubt about it, though, he’s the crowd favorite, and even with only 5% of the chips, he’s a force to be feared at that table.